Model clinical parameters
| Result or transition . | Estimate . | Range . | References . |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFS for ibrutinib first-line therapy | Exponential: λ = 0.005904 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, entire cohort | Gompertz: λ = 0.0089865, γ = 0.0257203 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, IGHV mutated only | Gompertz: λ = 0.0038591, γ = 0.0315173 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, IGHV unmutated only | Gompertz: λ = 0.0107668, γ = 0.0293043 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-venetoclax | Gompertz: λ = 0.0044257, γ = 0.0399164 | — | 11 |
| PFS for ibrutinib third-line therapy | Exponential: λ = 0.015356 | — | 46 |
| PFS for R-idelalisib | Weibull: λ = 0.0050368, κ = 1.794209 | — | 15 |
| PFS for ofatumumab | Gompertz: λ = 0.0231548, γ = 0.3048745 | — | 14 |
| Time from progression to start of next therapy, mo | 10.3 | 9-12 | 21 |
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, ibrutinib first-line, yearly, % | 23 | ||
| Year 0-1 | 6.725 | 5.38-8.07 | |
| Year 1-2 | 5.798 | 4.64-6.96 | |
| Year 2-3 | 5.388 | 4.31-6.47 | |
| Year 3+ | 0 | ||
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, ibrutinib third-line, yearly, % | 23 | ||
| Year 0-1 | 6.728 | 5.38-8.07 | |
| Year 1-2 | 2.714 | 2.17-3.25 | |
| Year 2-3 | 1.999 | 1.60-2.40 | |
| Year 3+ | 2.599 | 2.07-3.12 | |
| Time from discontinuation because of toxicity to start of next therapy, ibrutinib, mo | 6.5 | 6-9 | 24 |
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, R-bendamustine, 6 cycles, % | 13.3 | 10.6-15.9 | 22 |
| Probability of treatment mortality because of R-bendamustine, 6 cycles, % | 1 | 0.8-2.0 | 8,22 |
| Probability of receiving pegfilgrastim during R-bendamustine, cycles 2-6, % | 14.3 | 11.4-17.2 | 35,36 |
| Probability of receiving best supportive care after progression from third-line treatment, % | 11.6 | 9.28-13.92 | 16 |
| Probability of background death | — | — | 26 |
| Probability of death from best supportive care state, yearly, % | 55 | 44-66 | 25 |
| Probability of receiving IV rituximab rather than SQ, % | 80 | 64-96 | Expert opinion |
| Discount rate | 0.03 | 0.015-0.06 | 17,54 |
| Median starting age of cohort, y | 71 | 65-77 | 8 |
| Result or transition . | Estimate . | Range . | References . |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFS for ibrutinib first-line therapy | Exponential: λ = 0.005904 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, entire cohort | Gompertz: λ = 0.0089865, γ = 0.0257203 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, IGHV mutated only | Gompertz: λ = 0.0038591, γ = 0.0315173 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-bendamustine, IGHV unmutated only | Gompertz: λ = 0.0107668, γ = 0.0293043 | — | 8 |
| PFS for R-venetoclax | Gompertz: λ = 0.0044257, γ = 0.0399164 | — | 11 |
| PFS for ibrutinib third-line therapy | Exponential: λ = 0.015356 | — | 46 |
| PFS for R-idelalisib | Weibull: λ = 0.0050368, κ = 1.794209 | — | 15 |
| PFS for ofatumumab | Gompertz: λ = 0.0231548, γ = 0.3048745 | — | 14 |
| Time from progression to start of next therapy, mo | 10.3 | 9-12 | 21 |
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, ibrutinib first-line, yearly, % | 23 | ||
| Year 0-1 | 6.725 | 5.38-8.07 | |
| Year 1-2 | 5.798 | 4.64-6.96 | |
| Year 2-3 | 5.388 | 4.31-6.47 | |
| Year 3+ | 0 | ||
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, ibrutinib third-line, yearly, % | 23 | ||
| Year 0-1 | 6.728 | 5.38-8.07 | |
| Year 1-2 | 2.714 | 2.17-3.25 | |
| Year 2-3 | 1.999 | 1.60-2.40 | |
| Year 3+ | 2.599 | 2.07-3.12 | |
| Time from discontinuation because of toxicity to start of next therapy, ibrutinib, mo | 6.5 | 6-9 | 24 |
| Probability of treatment discontinuation, R-bendamustine, 6 cycles, % | 13.3 | 10.6-15.9 | 22 |
| Probability of treatment mortality because of R-bendamustine, 6 cycles, % | 1 | 0.8-2.0 | 8,22 |
| Probability of receiving pegfilgrastim during R-bendamustine, cycles 2-6, % | 14.3 | 11.4-17.2 | 35,36 |
| Probability of receiving best supportive care after progression from third-line treatment, % | 11.6 | 9.28-13.92 | 16 |
| Probability of background death | — | — | 26 |
| Probability of death from best supportive care state, yearly, % | 55 | 44-66 | 25 |
| Probability of receiving IV rituximab rather than SQ, % | 80 | 64-96 | Expert opinion |
| Discount rate | 0.03 | 0.015-0.06 | 17,54 |
| Median starting age of cohort, y | 71 | 65-77 | 8 |
—, not applicable.