Transition probabilities in a 60-year-old male patient. Transition probabilities predicted from the multistate model for 60-year-old male patients in (A) the lower-risk CMML group and (B) the higher-risk CMML group. At each point in time, the distance between 2 adjacent curves represents the probability of being in the corresponding state. The probability of being in an intermediate state can both increase and decrease over time, whereas the probability of absorbing (death) states can only increase over time. Additionally, the order of the states is such that the figure shows predicted OS curves: the sum of the probabilities of being in the states diagnosis, transformation to AML (AML), and treatment with allogeneic stem cell transplantation before AML (w/o AML) and after AML (after AML) transformation to AML, indicated by the red line, equals the probability of being alive (ie, OS). Similar transition probabilities for 60-years-old females are provided in supplemental Figure 8. w/o, without.