Cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM according to MAGIC risk stratification of samples from day +7 after HCT. High risk (HR; red) and low risk (LR; blue) were defined by the MAGIC algorithm using concentrations of 2 serum biomarkers (ST2 and REG3A) measured before the onset of any GVHD symptoms on day +7 of HCT and compared using Gray’s test. Training set (n = 620): HR: 28% (95% confidence interval, 20-37); LR: 7% (95% confidence interval, 5-10); test set (n = 309): HR: 33% (95% confidence interval, 21-46); LR: 7% (95% confidence interval, 5-11). In total, 16% and 17% of patients were identified as HR in the training and test sets, respectively. Adapted from Hartwell et al⁴⁸  with permission.