Prediction of long-term outcomes by early clinical response and biomarker probability status. (A) Forest plots. Left panel: Effect of early treatment resistance, Minnesota high-risk and high biomarker probability status on odds of resistance to treatment at week 4. Right panel: Effect of early treatment resistance, Minnesota high risk and high biomarker probability status on hazard of NRM at 1 year. Data are ratios and 95% confidence intervals. (B) Receiver operating characteristic curves to predict NRM. Curves are shown for early treatment response, biomarker probabilities, and Minnesota risk. The diamond (♦) indicates the threshold that defines low- versus high-risk groups. AUC for early treatment response = 0.68 (P = .004 compared with biomarker probability), for Minnesota risk = 0.72 (P = .005 compared with biomarker probability), and for biomarker probability = 0.82.