Bayesian probability distributions. The values on the vertical axis represent the weight assigned to each CR probability. Prior to treatment, the prior probability distribution (dotted line) is such, although the average CR rate is thought to be 20%, some credence is assigned to each probability of CR. After observing 5 of 10 CRs (dashed line), the average CR rate is close to 50% and no credence is given CR rates less than 10% or more than 90%, reflecting the impact of the observed data on the prior. After observing 7 CRs in the next 30 patients, for an overall CR rate of 12 of 40, the average CR rate is approximately 30% and no credence is given a CR rate more than 60% (solid line).