A Dynamic Prognostic Model to Predict Survival in Primary Myelofibrosis: a Study of the International Working Group for Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT).

Abstract 3891

Poster Board III-827

Age over 65 years, hemoglobin level lower than 10 g/dL, WBC count greater than 25 × 10⁹/L, peripheral blood blasts equal to or greater than 1%, and presence of constitutional symptoms provide a reliable prediction of survival in patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF) at diagnosis [Cervantes et al. Blood. 2009 Mar 26;113(13):2895-901]. In fact, based on the presence of 0 (low risk), 1 (intermediate risk-1), 2 (intermediate risk-2) or greater than or equal to 3 (high risk) of the above factors, 4 risk groups with no overlapping in their survival curves were defined. To investigate whether the acquisition of these prognostic factors during follow-up may predict survival anytime, we studied 525 PMF patients regularly followed at each participating Institution from 1980 to 2008. The study was carried out within the IWG-MRT, and an ad hoc database was developed for data collection. Patients with post-polycythemia vera and post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis, and patients with pre-fibrotic myelofibrosis were excluded from this study. Overall, 68 patients (26% of subjects who were below the age of 65 at diagnosis) passed the 65-year age threshold during the study period, 158 (47% of patients without this risk factor at diagnosis) developed anemia, 72 (15% of patients without this risk factor at diagnosis) presented marked leukocytosis, 102 (27% of patients without this risk factor at diagnosis) had more than 1% peripheral blast cells, and 54 (14% of patients without these symptoms at diagnosis) had constitutional symptoms. All variables resulted significant when analyzed as time-dependent covariates in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model, and all of them were therefore included in the subsequent models. Each variable was assigned an integer weight close to the corresponding hazard ratio (HR), and the sum of values obtained was used to allocate the patients into 4 risk categories (low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, high). We developed 2 separate models, one for all patients (DIPSS) and the other one for patients below the age of 65 (age-adjusted DIPSS), both applicable during the course of the disease. Cumulative survival can be estimated with the Kaplan Meier method. The increased risk of death when changing risk category was estimated as HR. According to DIPSS, the HR was: 4.13 (95% CI: 1.73-9.82; P < .001) if the risk category shifted from low to intermediate-1, 4.61 (95% CI: 3.18-9.82; P < .001) from intermediate-1 to intermediate-2, and 2.54 (95% CI: 1.94-3.31; P < .001) from intermediate-2 to high. According to age-adjusted DIPSS, the HR was 3.97 (95% CI: 1.5-10.5, P = .005) if the risk category shifted from low to intermediate-1, 2.84 (95% CI: 1.46-5.54; P = .002) from intermediate-1 to intermediate-2, and 1.81 (95% CI: 1.08-3.04; P = .025) from intermediate-2 to high. In conclusion, this study shows that age over 65 years, hemoglobin level lower than 10 g/dL, WBC count greater than 25 × 10⁹/L, peripheral blood blasts equal to or greater than 1%, and the presence of constitutional symptoms predict survival independently and in a time-dependent manner in patients with PMF. Both DIPSS and age-adjusted DIPSS allow a reliable prognostic assessment of PMF patients at any time during the clinical course of the disease, and are therefore useful for clinical decision making.