Hiatus in Infant Acute Leukemia Incidence rates in Belarus: Adaptation-to-Low-Dose-Radiation Phenomenon?

Abstract 507

The question of whether child acute leukemia (ChAL) incidence has changed as a result of Chernobyl is of great scientific and public interest. Our initial report (Nature, 1993) showed no increase in the incidence rates (IR) of ChAL in Belarus in the whole group of children (0–14 y.o.) 5 years (1986 – 1991) after accident. This data were confirmed in several European countries. As concerns infant's AL (0–1 y.o.), Petridou et al. reported 2.6 times increase of AL in Greek infants, exposed in utero to Chernobyl radiation. No significant difference in IR was found among children aged 1 – 4 y.o. or older. All epidemiological data concerning separate analysis of infant (0–1 y.o.) ChL was concentrated on the first decade after Chernobyl and no any systematic data is available after 1996. Since 1979 the occurrence of leukemia has been documented accurately through the Registry of Blood diseases. The patients had to be inhabitants of Belarus and were grouped by age at diagnosis. AL diagnostic accuracy was confirmed by the international experts. Rates were standardized directly to the standard world population. We present the age-cohort-period analyses of IR trends of ChAL from 1979 to 2006 in Belarus. It comprised 1077 ChAL cases (0–4 y.o.). Number of cases and equivalent doses of whole body radiation exposure was tabulated by age at diagnosis and period of observation (seven pre-accident years, 1979–1985) and post-accident 7-year periods: 1986–1992, 1993–1999 and 2000–2006.

During first 7 years after the accident (1986–1992) the IR of infant AL (0–1 y.o.) increased significantly – from 49 (IR=4.33) before Chernobyl to 67 cases (IR=6.36) in 1986–1992 (RR=1.47; p=0.04). Older age group (1–4 y.o.) did not show any increase in ChAL rates. Following 7-years period (1993–1999) revealed the statistically significant decrease of incidence of infant leukemia: from 49 (IR=4.33) before Chernobyl to 16 cases (IR=2.29) in 1993–1999 years (RR=0.53; p=0.024). Surprisingly, during the next 7 years (2000–2006) we found a further decrease of the incidence of infant leukemia with only 3 cases (IR=0.47) in 7 years. It is highly significant when compared with 49 cases (IR=4.33) before Chernobyl (p= 0.0000053, RR=0.11) and 67 cases (IR=6.36) appeared during first 7 years following Chernobyl accident (p < 0.0000001, RR=0.04). As concerns the older group (1–4 y.o.) we did not find any decrease of IR into the second (1993–1999) and third (2000–2006) 7-year periods.

Actually we are working on the next time period (2007–2010) and new upgraded data will be presented.

Long-term analysis of incidence of post-Chernobyl childhood acute leukemia permitted to discover the biphasic dynamics of infant's AL incidence rate. Significant increase into the first 7-year period followed by dramatic decrease between year +8 and year + 21. From radiological point of view it is relatively simpler to explain the increase into the first 7 years, because ionizing radiation is one of the few exposures for which the casual relationship with childhood leukemia has been established. Much more difficult to explain following after decrease in incidence rate of infant leukemia in Belarus. Can we speculate about the “adaptation-to-radiation” mechanisms? Over the past decades the growing body of data from cell cultures, experimental animals and humans suggests that low-dose ionizing radiation may have some beneficial (hormetic or adoptive) effect. Several epidemiological studies (India, China, Japan, USA) of a long-term low dose environmental irradiation are in favor of the hypothesis of radiation hormesis or adaptation. The carcinogenic effects of low dose radiation exposure may be restricted to children exposed in utero or in early infancy (0-12 months) during the first years after explosion. Following after dramatic decrease of IRs of infant leukemia might be explained by the developing of adaptive response to chronic low dose ionizing radiation exposure. The presented data may be one of the first clinical evidence concerning human ability of adaptation to long-term low dose radiation.