Early Molecular Response Is Predictive Of Overall, Progression-Free and Event-Free Survival In Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Using Second-Generation Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors After Imatinib Treatment

to evaluate the predictive value of early molecular responses, at 3 and 6 months after treatment with 2G-TKI in CML patients with imatinib failure or intolerance; to correlate these responses with CCR, overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and event free survival (EFS).

Between September 2007 and August 2012, 71 consecutive patients with CML resistant or intolerant to imatinib were treated with dasatinib (n= 50) or nilotinib (n=21). BCR-ABL transcripts were measured in peripheral blood using real-time quantitative PCR (RQ-PCR) at 3 months intervals. Results were expressed as BCR-ABL/ABL ratio, with conversion to the international scale (IS). Major molecular response (MMR) was defined as a transcript level ≤ 0.1% (IS). Cytogenetic analysis was performed at baseline, 3, 6, 12 and 18 months after starting therapy with 2G-TKI. BCR-ABL mutation analysis by direct sequencing was investigated in resistant patients. Probabilities of OS, PFS and EFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method. An event was defined as the loss of CHR, CCR, progression to advanced phases, death or 2G-TKI discontinuation. The CCR probabilities according to molecular responses were calculated by c² method and cumulative incidence, considering as competitive event death or progression.

71 patients were analyzed, median age of 47 years (15-81); Disease status before 2G-TKI was: 50 (71%) CP; 13 (18%) AP and 8 (11%) BC. Responses: 59/71 (83%) obtained CHR; 38/55 (69%) CCR and 37/60 (62%) MMR. At 3 months of therapy, 81.5% (44/54) had a BCR-ABL ratio ≤10% and at 6 months 66% (33/50) had ≤ 1%. At 3 months, CCR was obtained 65% (19/29) pts with ≤10% RQ-PCR and 16% (1/6) with >10% RQ-PCR (p= 0.06). At 6 months, CCR was 100% (12/12) in pts with RQ-PCR ≤ 1% and 14% (1/7) in those with >1% (p< 0.0001). The probability to achieve RQ-PCR < 10% at 3 month was 43% (95% CI 32-54%). During treatment 3 (4%) progressed to AP and 5 (7%) to BC. The 5-year probability of OS was 78% (95% CI: 68-88%) albeit by disease status was 86% in CP, 92% in AP and 12% in BC (p< 0.0001). OS was inferior in pts with RQ-PCR > 10% at 3 months (60 vs 84%, p= 0.03) and >1% at 6 months (68 vs100%, p= 0.006). PFS was 68% in 5-year, and was lower in BC pts (p< 0.0001) and pts with RQ-PCR >1% at 6 months (p= 0.004). EFS was 53% and lower in BC pts (p< 0.0001), in pts with RQ-PCR > 10% at 3 months (p= 0.005) and > 1% at 6 months (p< 0.0001). RQ-PCR at 3 and 6 months were also predictive of a worse survival when patients in CP were analyzed separately. 2G-TKI was discontinued in 44% (31/71) due to: resistance (n=18), intolerance (n=5), death (n= 3), HSCT (n=3) and loss of follow-up (n=2). Eleven BCR-ABL mutations were detected in 36 pts; 3 previously 2G-TKI (L387M-1, E255K-1, M351T-1) and 9 after therapy (T315I-5, M244V-2, E255V-1, Y253H-1). OS by mutation was 45% with any mutation and 88% with no mutation (p= 0.05).

BCR-ABL transcript levels at 3 and 6 months can identify patients with worse prognosis and less chance to obtain CCR with 2G-TKI after imatinib treatment.

No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.