Choosing First-Line Therapy for Follicular Lymphoma (FL): A Decision Analysis

Introduction: There is no standard of care for first-line therapy of low-grade FL. In US practice, the most common strategy is rituximab with combination chemotherapy. However, the optimal choice of regimen remains controversial; options include RCVP, RCHOP and R-Fludarabine-based chemotherapy (RFlu). Because data from randomized clinical trials are not available and unlikely to be generated in the future, we performed a decision analysis comparing RCVP, RCHOP, and RFlu as first-line therapy for FL.

Methods: We constructed a Markov model of sequential first- and second-line therapy based on prescribing patterns in the US. The endpoint of the model was quality-adjusted time to tertiary referral for therapy such as RIT or autologous transplant (≥3^rd line). A literature review was performed of the Medline database and international meeting abstracts. Clinical trials of both untreated and previously treated patients were systematically evaluated using explicit eligibility criteria. Data were extracted regarding response rates, treatment-related mortality, and progression-free survival (PFS). Weighted estimates were obtained using a fixed effects meta-analysis. The model also incorporated published data on heath state utilities, risk of anthracycline cardiotoxicity and fludarabine-related delayed cytopenias. Primary and sensitivity analyses were performed using TreeAge software.

Results: The optimal treatment strategy consisted of RCHOP in first-line followed by RFlu in second-line (9.0 quality-adjusted life years; QALYs). Strategies containing RCVP in either first- or second-line were inferior (6.2–7.7 QALYs). The model was sensitive to first-line PFS of RCHOP and RFlu when these were varied over the range of estimates obtained from individual published trials. The model was robust in sensitivity analysis of most other parameters, including rate of delayed cytopenias after RFlu, anthracycline cardiotoxicity, and quality of life adjustments.

Conclusions: Using decision analysis, the optimal first-line therapy for low-grade FL is RCHOP, followed by RFlu in second-line. This strategy maximizes quality-adjusted time to tertiary therapy. Use of RCVP does not improve overall quality-adjusted time relative to more intensive therapies.