Predictors of Greater Than 80% Two-Year Mortality in Primary Myelofibrosis: A Mayo Clinic Study of 884 Karyotypically-Annotated Cases

A high degree of prognostic certainty is required to recommend or discourage high risk treatment procedures in primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS-plus) uses eight risk factors to predict overall survival (OS) in PMF: unfavorable karyotype, peripheral blood (PB) blast count ≥1%, platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L, white blood cell count (WBC) >25 × 10⁹/L, hemoglobin level <10 g/dL, red blood cell transfusion need, constitutional symptoms, and age >65 years (Gangat et al. JCO 2011;29 :392). The presence of four or more of these risk factors defines high-risk disease.

The purpose of the current study was to enhance the prognostic weight of some of the DIPSS-plus risk factors with the intent to identify one or two parameters that can reliably predict death in the first two years of disease.

An updated Mayo Clinic database of 884 karyotypically-annotated patients with PMF was used. Calculations of 2-year mortality rates and variables considered for prognostic value were from time of referral to the Mayo Clinic. Cytogenetic risk categorization per DIPSS-plus was further refined to capture additional prognostic information from monosomal karyotype (MK) (Vaidya et al. Blood 2011;117 :5612) and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (Caramazza et al. Leukemia 2011;25 :82). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to define best discriminant levels.

To date, 564 (64%) deaths have been documented. Each one of the aforementioned DIPSS-plus risk factors was associated with a 2-year mortality rate that ranged from 42% (PB blast count ≥1%) to 60% (unfavorable karyotype). High-risk disease per DIPSS-plus was associated with 57% two-year mortality. The only risk factors that were associated with >80% two-year mortality were MK (n =19) and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (n =8) and both were associated with significantly worse survival, compared to other unfavorable karyotype (n =102): HR (95% CI) of 5.1 (3.1−8.4) and 3.9 (1.7−8.8), respectively. ROC analysis identified PB blast counts of 2% and 9% (AUC 0.62) and WBC of 43 × 10⁹/L (AUC 0.66) as best discriminant levels for predicting 2-year mortality; OS was significantly worse in the presence of PB blast >9% (HR 4.1, 95% CI 2.8–6.1) vs. 2% to 9% (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5–2.2) vs. <2%; the corresponding 2-year mortality rates were 73%, 46% and 25%. OS was also significantly worse in the presence of WBC ≥40 × 10⁹/L (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.2–3.6) vs. 26–39 × 10⁹/L (HR 1.6, 95% CI, 1.2–2.1) vs. <26 × 10⁹/L; the corresponding 2-year mortality rates were 63%, 42% and 28%. Two-year mortality rates exceeded 80% in the presence of any two of the following: PB blast count >9%, WBC ≥40 × 10⁹/L or unfavorable karyotype other than MK or inv(3)/i(17q).

A greater than 80% 2-year mortality in PMF is predicted by the presence of MK, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, or any two of the following: PB blast >9%, WBC ≥40 × 10⁹/L, other unfavorable karyotype. Such patients and those with high DIPSS-plus risk should be referred to allogenic stem cell transplantation earlier than later.

No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.