Extensive Bone Marrow Infiltration and Abnormal Free Light Chain Ratio Identifies Patients with Smoldering Myeloma At High Risk for Progression to Symptomatic Disease,

Abstract 3926

Asymptomatic/smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is a proliferative plasma cell disorder characterized by a substantial risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma. According to current recommendations, patients with SMM should be followed without treatment until they develop symptomatic disease. However, the risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma varies between different series and for individual patients; thus, significant effort is needed in order to identify factors that could discriminate those who are at high risk for progression. Such patients should be followed closer and should be considered candidates for clinical trials. In order to evaluate previously recognized risk factors and study patterns of progression we analyzed our series of patients with SMM, who have been diagnosed and followed in the Department of Clinical Therapeutics in Athens, Greece.

SMM was defined as serum monoclonal (M) protein (IgG or IgA) level of ≥3 g/dL and/or bone marrow plasma cells ≥10%, absence of end-organ damage, such as lytic bone lesions, anemia, hypercalcemia, or renal failure, that can attributed to a plasma cell proliferative disorder (IMWG criteria, Br J Haematol 2003;121:749–57). Progression to symptomatic myeloma was defined as per the IMWG proposed criteria.

We analyzed 95 patients with SMM, 53% of whom were females, 70% had IgG heavy chain, 22% had IgA, 5% had a biclonal SMM and 3% had light chain only SMM, while 65% had a kappa light chain and 35% a lambda light chain. Median infiltration by clonal plasma cells in BM trephine biopsy was 20% (range 10–90%), 10% of patients had ≥60% clonal plasma cells in BM biopsy. Fifty patients had MRI of the spine at the time of diagnosis of SMM and 19.5% had an abnormal pattern of BM infiltration (diffuse, focal or variegated pattern). In patients with available bone marrow immunohistochemistry data, 61% had clonal plasma positive for CD56, 17% for CD20 and 19% for cyclin D1.

The median follow up of the cohort was 27 months (range 1–253 months) and 23 (24%) patients have progressed to symptomatic myeloma. The one-year, 2-year and 3-year cumulative probability of progression was 7%, 12% and 20% respectively. Nine patients (9.5%) progressed within the first two years from the diagnosis of SMM. All these patients had an M-protein of ≥1 g/dl (10 g/L), 67% had bone marrow plasma cells >60% and 80% had an abnormal MRI pattern of BM infiltration. The 3-year probability of progression to symptomatic myeloma was 4%, 18% and 87% for patients with <20%, 20–59% and ≥60% clonal plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy (P<0.001). The 2-year probability of progression to symptomatic myeloma was 0%, 13% and 60% for patients with <20%, 20–59% and ≥60% clonal plasma cells in BM biopsy (P<0.001). Patients with significantly abnormal free light chain ratio (either kappa/lambda ≥8 or kappa/lambda ≤0.125, according to Dispenzieri et al, Blood 2008;111:785–9) had a 3-year probability of progression to symptomatic MM of 41% vs. 15% (p=0.07). There was no significant difference in the risk of progression to symptomatic MM for patients with IgA vs. IgG myeloma. In multivariate analysis, abnormal FLC ratio less than 0.125 or more than 8 (HR: 6.4, 95% CI 1.3–34.5 p=0.032) and BM clonal plasma cells infiltration ≥60% (HR: 23, 95% CI 5–125, p<0.001) were independent risk factors for progression to symptomatic myeloma.

Progression to symptomatic MM was manifested by the development of anemia in 52% of patients who progressed to symptomatic MM, development of lytic bone lesions or pathologic fracture in 48%, an increase of serum creatinine to ≥2 mg/dl in 13%, development of a soft tissue plasmacytoma in 4% and development of hypercalcemia in 4%.

In conclusion, in our series of patients the 3-year probability of progression to symptomatic myeloma is about 20%, but there is a subgroup of patients with extensive bone marrow infiltration (≥60%) and highly abnormal FLC ratio, who have a substantial risk of progression to symptomatic disease within the first two years from the diagnosis of SMM. These high risk patients may also have other features such as abnormal MRI of the spine. Patients at high risk for progression should be considered for clinical trials evaluating the role of treatment before the development of symptomatic disease, which in most cases is manifested with anemia and/or lytic bone disease or pathologic fractures.