Cancer Registries Often Underestimate the True Incidence of CLL

Background: The Israel National Cancer Registry (INCR) is a population based, national passive tumor registry established in 1960. Reporting by hospitals, laboratories, and other providers has been mandatory in Israel since 1982 and most cancer cases are registered on the basis of pathology reports and hospital records. In some hematopoietic malignancies where the diagnosis was not based on tissue pathology and patients initially received no inpatient treatment, cases may not have been reported to the registry, or reporting to the INCR may have been delayed, resulting in an underestimation of the true burden of disease.

One diagnosis for which there is particular concern in this regard is CLL/SLL and here we used active surveillance to estimate the true incidence of CLL/SLL in Israel. Here we present the interim results

Methods: We attempted to estimate the incidence of CLL in Israel more accurately,recognizing the fact that the exact incidence may never be known. The Israel Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Study Group, working with the Israel Center for Disease Control of the Ministry of Health, actively documented new cases of CLL/SLL in Israel for calendar years 2011 and 2012. All flow cytometry laboratories in Israel provided lists of patients with B cell clones. Israeli hematologists diagnosing CLL were asked to verify which of the B cell clones indicated a diagnosis of CLL, SLL, PLL or MBL and to fill out an internet-based reporting form. Diagnoses based on flow cytometry were verified by medical record review. Cases identified through active surveillance were pooled with cases known to INCR in order to estimate the true annual incidence of CLL/SLL and assess the completeness of the INCR data.

Results: We identified 432 and 396 CLL/SLL cases for 2011 and 2012, respectively of whom 57.4% were males. The average age was 68.8. The corresponding age-adjusted[1]incidence rates per 100,000 (ASR) were 4.26 for 2011 and 3.79 for 2012. In comparison, the INCR registered 295 new CLL cases in 2011 (ASR=2.78) and 232 in 2012 (ASR=2.19), 54.5% of them males. The average age at diagnosis was 69.9. These data indicate a gap between true and reported incidence (1.48 and 1.60/100,000 in 2011 and 2012, respectively). However, it should be noted that the INCR will be fully updated for 2012 only by the beginning of 2015.

Of active surveillance cases, 157 (2011) and 152 (2012) were registered in the INCR. Most cases missing in the INCR were diagnosed based on flow cytometry, peripheral blood samples and FISH (85.9% in 2011, 89.8% in 2012) without histo-pathological confirmation.

Of the CLL/SLL cases existing in the INCR dataset for 2011-12 but not detected by active surveillance (138 in 2011; 80 in 2012), most (76.8% in 2011, 63.8% in 2012) had been diagnosed earlier and the remainder were coded as diagnoses other than CLL/SLL. Omitting these cases from the INCR dataset substantially increased the observed gaps in the true and the registered annual incidence of CLL/SLL (from 1.48 to 2.80 per 100,000 in 2011 and from 1.60 to 2.37 per 100,000 in 2012).

Conclusions: The true incidence of CLL is unknown, but it is clear that there is under reporting to cancer registries. Completeness of CLL/SLL data requires accurate reporting of cases by hematologists and other care providers in the community. In Israel, this issue has been addressed by publishing updated guidelines for mandatory reporting stressing the requirement for reporting of hematologic malignancies.

[1] Age-adjustment made on the basis of the world standard population