The Compass-COVID19-ICU Study: Identification of Factors to Predict the Risk of Intubation and Mortality in Patients with Severe COVID-19

Background: In some patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection induces cytokine storm, hypercoagulability and endothelial cell activation leading to worsening of COVID-19, intubation and death. Prompt identification of patients at risk of intubation or death is un unmet need.

Objective: To derive a prognostic score for the risk of intubation or death in patients with critical COVID-19 by assessing biomarkers of hypercoagulability, endothelial cell activation and inflammation and a large panel of clinical analytes.

Methods: We conducted a prospective, observational monocentric study enrolling 118 patients with COVID-19 admitted in the intensive care unit. At the 1st day of ICU admission all patients were assessed for the following biomarkers : protein C, protein S, antithrombin, D-Dimer, fibrin monomers, factors VIIa, V, XII, XII, VIII, von Willebrand antigen, fibrinogen, procoagulant phospholipid dependent clotting time, TFPI, thrombomodulin, P-selectin, heparinase, microparticles exposing tissue factor, IL-6, complement C3a, C5a, thrombin generation, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, hemogram, platelet count) and clinical predictors. The clinical outcomes were intubation and mortality during hospitalization in ICU.

Results: The intubation and mortality rate were 70 % and 18% respectively. Multivariate analysis led to the derivation of the COMPASS- COVID19-ICU score composed of P-Selectin, D-Dimer, free TFPI, TF activity, IL-6 and FXII, age and duration of hospitalization. The score predicted the risk of intubation or death with high sensitivity and specificity (0.90 and 0.92, respectively).

Conclusions and Relevance: Critical COVID-19 is related with severe endothelial cell activation and hypercoagulability orchestrated in the context of inflammation. The COMPASS-COVID19-ICU score is an accurate predictive model for the evaluation of the risk of mechanical ventilation and death in patients with critical COVID-19. The assessment with the COMPASS- COVID-19-ICU score is feasible in tertiary hospitals. In this context it could be placed in the diagnostic procedure of personalized medical management and prompt therapeutic intervention.